Do you want to bet on golf and to earn some extra cash? In this guide, I’ll give you my proven strategy for betting on golf tournaments.
With a little bit of extra analysis and by knowing where to look, you can become an expert at golf betting as well.
Comment below and let me know if you need any help!
Related: Best fantasy golf websites to try out
Golf Betting Overview
Golf betting has grown rapidly in popularity, especially with the rise of online sportsbooks, making it a popular choice among bettors. Golf betting offers a unique and rewarding experience, with a wide range of wagers available to casual fans and seasoned bettors.
Unlike team sports, golf betting revolves around individuals competing in tournaments that span multiple days and rounds. Most bets can be placed before the event starts or live as the tournament unfolds.
How Golf Betting Works
You’re typically betting on individual performances over a four-round tournament in golf. With large fields (often 100+ players), betting odds tend to be attractive as even top players can offer substantial payouts. Bets can be placed online, via mobile apps, or at sportsbooks, with odds adjusting based on factors like player form and weather, which can help determine the best times to place your bets.
Common Types of Golf Bets
- Outright Winner: Bet on a golfer to win the tournament outright. This is the most high-risk, high-reward option.
- Each-Way Bet: An each-way bet is considered a split bet. You win half on an outright win and half on a top finish (usually top 5 or 8).
- Place Finish (Top 5, Top 10, Top 20): This is where you wager on a player finishing within a set position.
- Matchups (Head-to-Head): Bet on one player to outperform another, regardless of overall finish.
- Props & Specials: Fun bets like “Will there be a hole-in-one?” or “Top American finisher.”
How to Read Golf Odds
Golf odds are shown in three formats:
- Fractional (20/1): Bet $1 to win $20.
- Decimal (21.00): Total return of $21 for every $1 wagered.
- Moneyline (+2000): Bet $100 to win $2,000.
Out-right and longshot bets yield bigger payouts, while matchup and placement bets offer steadier, lower-risk returns. Before placing any prop bets, it’s a good idea to always check terms like payout places and whether odds are fixed or live.
It’s important to monitor the prices offered by different sportsbooks to find the best value for your bets. Picking top players like Scottie Scheffler, Rory Mcilroy or Tiger Woods (back in 2001) don’t provide the best value because they are popular and so many people have placed bets on them. This causes the betting sites to decrease the golf betting odds to less money.
Essential Golf Betting KPIs
To make smarter, data-driven wagers in golf, we recommend analyzing key performance indicators (KPIs) that help gauge a golfer’s form, strengths, and potential fit for a given course. Understanding these metrics can give bettors a significant edge beyond relying on world rankings or recent headlines.
Using these KPIs, you can make more accurate predictions about a golfer’s performance.
Key Performance Indicators for Evaluating Golfers
The most commonly used KPIs to assess golfers include:
- Driving Distance & Driving Accuracy: How far and how straight a player hits off the tee.
- Greens in Regulation (GIR): How often a player reaches the green in the expected number of strokes.
- Scrambling & Sand Saves: A player can recover and save par when missing the green.
- Putting Average: Strokes per hole on the green are vital on golf courses where scoring comes down to short-game performance.
- Lowest Score: Evaluating a player’s ability to achieve the lowest score in various rounds.
Strokes Gained Statistics
Strokes Gained is a modern, comprehensive set of statistics that measures a player’s performance relative to the field average in specific areas:
- Strokes Gained: Off the Tee
- Strokes Gained: Approach
- Strokes Gained: Around the Green
- Strokes Gained: Putting
- Strokes Gained: Total
These stats provide deeper insight than raw numbers, showing exactly where a golfer gains or loses strokes. This is crucial in the golf betting world, where any additional information can give you an edge. While strokes gained statistics are crucial, understanding different formats like match play can also provide valuable insights.
Course-Specific Statistics
Certain stats matter more depending on golf course layout and conditions. For example:
- Driving Distance is key at long, open courses like Torrey Pines or any Links-style golf course.
- Scrambling and Putting is extremely important on tight, tricky greens like Augusta National.
- Par 5 Scoring or Proximity to the Hole can be decisive if a course features reachable par 5s or small greens.
For instance, the Masters at Augusta National requires a unique set of skills due to its challenging layout.
Matching a player’s strengths to a course’s demands is important to identify value bets.
Using Historical Data to Predict Performance
Analyzing historical performance is another powerful tool. Factors to consider:
- Course History: How a player has fared at a given course in past years.
- Recent Form: Performance over the last 5–10 tournaments.
- Weather Adaptability: Success in windy, wet, or firm conditions.
- Grass Type Proficiency: How well a player putts on specific surfaces (Bermuda vs. Bentgrass).
Trends in these areas often predict a golfer’s likelihood of contending, making the cut, or outperforming expectations. Analyzing a player’s performance over the past year can provide insights into their current form and potential.
Strategy for How to Bet on Golf: Player Fit
A smart golf betting strategy goes beyond picking the biggest names to win. It’s also about identifying how well a player’s skill set matches the specific golf course. This concept of player-course fit is one of the most reliable ways to spot value in the betting markets.
It’s crucial to choose players whose skills align with the course’s demands to maximize your betting success.
Evaluating Course Characteristics and Layouts
Each golf course has unique challenges, from length and fairway width to green size and hazard placement. Key factors to assess include:
- Course length (short vs. long)
- Fairway width (tight vs. forgiving)
- Green complexity (size, slope, speed)
- Type of grass (Bermuda, Bentgrass, Poa annua)
Before placing bets, it is essential to know whether a course favors big hitters off the tee, precise iron players, or elite putters. Understanding whether a course favors stroke play or match play can also influence your betting strategy.
Identifying Player Strengths vs. Course Demands
Once you understand the course setup, match those traits to players’ strengths:
- Long hitters thrive on wide-open, lengthy layouts.
- Accurate ball-strikers shine on narrow, target-oriented courses.
- Strong scramblers and putters excel on courses with small greens and tricky surrounds.
Keep an eye on players who consistently perform well in specific conditions to make informed bets.
Impact of Weather Conditions on Course Play
Weather plays a huge role in golf outcomes. Wind, rain, and temperature shifts can alter how a course plays:
- Wind favors experienced shot-makers who can control ball flight.
- Rain softens greens, benefitting aggressive approach players.
- Cold or hot conditions affect ball distance and stamina.
Always check forecasts when betting, especially on golf courses where weather swings are common. Weather conditions can vary significantly from week to week, affecting player performance.
Course History Analysis and Its Relevance
Some golfers consistently perform well at certain venues, regardless of form elsewhere. Course history can indicate:
- Comfort with sightlines, green reads, and course strategy.
- Positive mental associations and confidence.
How to Build a Profitable Golf Betting Portfolio
Building a consistent, long-term profit in golf betting requires disciplined bankroll management, strategic bet sizing, and a well-diversified betting approach.
Including parlays in your betting strategy can also diversify your portfolio and increase potential returns.
Bankroll Management Principles
First, it is important to establish a dedicated bankroll, which is an amount of money set aside solely for betting. A common rule is to risk no more than 1–2% of your bankroll on any wager. This protects you from inevitable losing streaks and keeps you in the game long-term, even if a bet loses.
Understanding how much each bet can pay out is crucial for effective bankroll management.
Portfolio Diversity and Bet Sizing
Diversify your bets to spread risk and smooth out returns. A balanced golf betting portfolio might include:
- A few out-right winner bets (long odds, small stakes)
- Several top 5/10/20 place bets (shorter odds, medium stakes)
- Select matchup bets (steady returns, larger stakes)
Adjust bet sizes based on risk and confidence, placing larger bets on safer markets and smaller bets on longshot winners. Making informed selections across different betting markets can help balance risk and reward.
Risk Management Strategies
Avoid chasing losses or overexposing yourself to one type of bet or player. Some key tactics to use include:
- Capping exposure on a single player or event
- Limiting out-right bets to a handful per tournament
- Tracking results to monitor success rates by bet type
Staying disciplined reduces the risk of bankroll depletion from volatile bets. Betting on an underdog can offer high payouts, but it’s important to manage the associated risks.
Using Place Markets to Hedge Out-right Bets
Hedging is a smart way to reduce risk while keeping upside potential. When backing a player to win outright, place a top 5 or 10 bet on the same golfer. If they don’t win but still finish high, your place bet cushions or even covers losses.
For example, a $10 out-right bet at 30/1 can be paired with a $30 top-10 bet at +300. If the player finishes T6, you still profit from the place bet even if the win doesn’t land. Be aware of how ties are handled in place markets to understand potential payouts.
Common Golf Betting Mistakes to Avoid
Even seasoned bettors can fall into traps that deplete long-term profits. Recognizing and avoiding these common mistakes can give you a crucial edge in golf betting.
Always find the most current information to avoid making uninformed bets.
Overvaluing Recent Performance
It’s tempting to back players riding hot streaks, but recent form doesn’t always translate to success on every golf course. A player coming off two top-5 finishes might struggle on a layout that doesn’t suit their golf game.
Always weigh current form against course characteristics and historical performance before betting. A player’s recent performance may not always result in a win, so consider other factors as well.
Ignoring Course Fit Analysis
Betting solely on star power or world rankings, without considering how a golfer’s skills match a course’s demands, is a classic betting error. Course fit often trumps pure talent, as a lesser-known player with the right skill set can outperform bigger names at certain venues.
Relying solely on rankings without considering course fit can lead to poor picks.
Poor Bankroll Management
Staking too much on one event, bet, or player is a fast track to losses. Without disciplined bankroll management, even good bets can backfire over time. Stick to modest, consistent bet sizes and avoid risking large chunks of your bankroll on longshots.
Effective bankroll management is crucial for sustaining betting success throughout the season.
Chasing Losses with Aggressive Bets
After a tough loss, it’s easy to overcompensate with bigger, riskier bets to “win it back.” This often leads to compounding mistakes and rapid bankroll depletion. Stay calm, stick to your strategy, and remember that long-term success comes from patience.
Chasing losses can lead to missed opportunities and increased risk, so take each bet as a new chance.
Conclusion
Hopefully this guide gives you a great starting point on how to bet on golf tournaments. This strategy requires a calculated approach combining statistical analysis, course knowledge, and proper bankroll management. Following the strategies outlined in this guide, you’ll be well-equipped to identify value bets and make informed decisions.
Remember, patience and discipline are key – don’t chase losses; always stick to your predetermined betting strategy. Start implementing these techniques today, and you’ll see improved results in your golf betting journey!
Frequently Asked Questions About Golf Betting (FAQs)
What is the best type of golf bet for beginners?
Each-way betting is ideal for beginners as it offers two chances to win – if your player wins or places within a specified range. This betting style provides better value and lower risk than out-right winner bets.
How important is course history when betting on golf?
Course history is essential as certain players consistently perform well at specific venues. Players who have previously succeeded at a course often have an advantage due to familiarity with the layout and conditions.
What bankroll management strategy should I use for golf betting?
A conservative approach is to risk no more than 1-2% of your total bankroll on any single bet. For tournament betting, spread your risk across multiple players and betting markets.
How do weather conditions affect golf betting?
Weather can significantly impact player performance, particularly wind conditions and precipitation. Morning/afternoon tee time draws can create advantages or disadvantages based on weather patterns.
Should I focus on major tournaments or regular PGA Tour events for betting?
Regular PGA Tour events often offer better value betting opportunities than majors, as bookmakers focus more on major tournaments. This can lead to more pricing inefficiencies in regular events.
